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Why Is Marriott (VAC) Up 0.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Marriott Vacations Q2 Earnings Lag, Revenues Top Estimates

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation reported mixed second-quarter 2021 results, wherein earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues surpassed the same.

However, the top and the bottom line increased significantly on a year-over-year basis owing to the increase in contract sales and the company’s digital growth strategies.

Q2 Earnings and Revenues

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 85 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents per share by 4.5%. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported adjusted loss of $1.76 per share.

Total revenues of $979 million surpassed the consensus mark of $921 million by 6.3%. Moreover, the top line increased 104% on a year-over-year basis.

Segmental Performances

Vacation Ownership: During the second quarter, the segment’s revenues significantly increased 118% year over year to $883 million from $405 million. Revenues, excluding cost reimbursements, increased 189% year over year. Also, the figure improved 52% compared with first-quarter 2021. Moreover, in the second quarter, revenues from sale of vacation ownership products increased 82% and development profit margin improved to 22%, quarter over quarter.

The segment’s adjusted EBITDA came in at $182 million against ($19) million in the prior-year quarter.

Exchange & Third-Party Management: The segment’s revenues totaled $86 million in the second quarter, up 48.3% from $58 million in the prior-year quarter.

During the second quarter, total Interval Network active members declined 10.7% (compared with the previous quarter’s levels) to 1.3 million, while interval average revenue per member rose 53.7% to $46.36. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA declined $4 million to $37 million, quarter over quarter.

Corporate and Other results

During the second quarter, general and administrative costs increased $47 million year over year on an increase in net overall spending, reinstating compensation plans following 2020 and lower credit in the current year related to incentives under the CARES Act.

Expenses & EBITDA

Total expenses in the quarter increased 67% year over year to $870 million from $521 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter amounted to $164 million against ($10) million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

As of Jun 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents were $1.3 billion, significantly up from $524 million as of Dec 31, 2020.

The company had $5.3 billion in debt outstanding (net of unamortized debt issuance costs) at the end of the second quarter, up $0.1 billion from 2020-end. This includes $3.5 billion of corporate debt and $1.8 billion of non-recourse debt related to its securitized notes receivable.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -10.18% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Marriott has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Marriott has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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